# OLM 0.2 model file. Specification: spec/OLM-SPEC.md
olm: "0.2"
id: us-ssa-2023-period
name: US population baseline (SSA 2023 period life table)
version: 1.0.0
status: published
license: CC0-1.0
authors:
  - name: OpenLifeModel contributors
    url: https://github.com/OpenLifeModel/openlifemodel
description: >-
  Average mortality for the US population, with no personal adjustments. It
  reproduces the Social Security Administration's published period life
  expectancies and is the starting point for other models.
population: US Social Security area population, all ages, by sex.
assumptions:
  - >-
    Period life table: assumes 2023 death rates apply for the rest of the
    person's life, with no future improvement in mortality.
  - Mortality is constant within each year of age.
  - After age 119 the age-119 death rate continues indefinitely.
sources:
  - id: ssa-2023
    citation: >-
      Social Security Administration, Office of the Chief Actuary. Actuarial
      Life Table: Period Life Table, 2023, as used in the 2026 Trustees Report.
    url: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/table4c6.html
    license: Public domain (US federal government work)
    notes: Death probabilities transcribed from the published table on 4 October 2026.
baseline:
  type: period-life-table
  source: ssa-2023
  start_age: 0
  qx:
    male: [
      0.006015, 0.000479, 0.000320, 0.000249, 0.000194, 0.000159, 0.000137, 0.000125, 0.000120, 0.000120,
      0.000125, 0.000140, 0.000173, 0.000233, 0.000327, 0.000463, 0.000634, 0.000819, 0.000999, 0.001138,
      0.001235, 0.001315, 0.001378, 0.001439, 0.001509, 0.001595, 0.001685, 0.001783, 0.001876, 0.001970,
      0.002085, 0.002202, 0.002308, 0.002407, 0.002490, 0.002577, 0.002665, 0.002764, 0.002864, 0.002987,
      0.003115, 0.003253, 0.003419, 0.003600, 0.003777, 0.003931, 0.004073, 0.004245, 0.004477, 0.004795,
      0.005126, 0.005496, 0.005917, 0.006404, 0.006923, 0.007491, 0.008173, 0.008938, 0.009714, 0.010494,
      0.011337, 0.012232, 0.013196, 0.014229, 0.015316, 0.016455, 0.017574, 0.018735, 0.019981, 0.021366,
      0.022903, 0.024615, 0.026504, 0.028648, 0.031071, 0.033802, 0.037010, 0.041158, 0.045461, 0.050346,
      0.055633, 0.061757, 0.068358, 0.075420, 0.083364, 0.092680, 0.103459, 0.115502, 0.129018, 0.143810,
      0.159458, 0.176551, 0.195360, 0.216286, 0.238799, 0.262268, 0.286291, 0.310944, 0.332325, 0.349036,
      0.366568, 0.384960, 0.404252, 0.424488, 0.445712, 0.467998, 0.491398, 0.515968, 0.541766, 0.568854,
      0.597297, 0.627162, 0.658520, 0.691446, 0.726018, 0.762319, 0.800435, 0.840457, 0.882480, 0.926604
    ]
    female: [
      0.005125, 0.000392, 0.000229, 0.000188, 0.000155, 0.000133, 0.000115, 0.000105, 0.000100, 0.000098,
      0.000101, 0.000111, 0.000126, 0.000152, 0.000188, 0.000229, 0.000273, 0.000323, 0.000372, 0.000410,
      0.000441, 0.000476, 0.000513, 0.000546, 0.000582, 0.000609, 0.000641, 0.000683, 0.000740, 0.000808,
      0.000878, 0.000947, 0.001018, 0.001089, 0.001154, 0.001209, 0.001263, 0.001347, 0.001438, 0.001533,
      0.001643, 0.001742, 0.001845, 0.001954, 0.002075, 0.002187, 0.002306, 0.002438, 0.002595, 0.002791,
      0.003030, 0.003288, 0.003554, 0.003847, 0.004172, 0.004532, 0.004923, 0.005365, 0.005815, 0.006333,
      0.006923, 0.007555, 0.008220, 0.008881, 0.009514, 0.010188, 0.010880, 0.011659, 0.012543, 0.013581,
      0.014769, 0.016153, 0.017705, 0.019495, 0.021533, 0.023846, 0.026458, 0.029700, 0.033135, 0.036982,
      0.041183, 0.045959, 0.051282, 0.057262, 0.064107, 0.071752, 0.080490, 0.090566, 0.102204, 0.115178,
      0.129176, 0.144229, 0.160353, 0.177635, 0.196502, 0.216846, 0.238750, 0.261359, 0.283899, 0.306491,
      0.329680, 0.353333, 0.377300, 0.401416, 0.425501, 0.451031, 0.478092, 0.506778, 0.537185, 0.568854,
      0.597297, 0.627162, 0.658520, 0.691446, 0.726018, 0.762319, 0.800435, 0.840457, 0.882480, 0.926604
    ]
tests:
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, male aged 0
    profile: {age: 0, sex: male}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 75.79, tolerance: 0.02}
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, male aged 20
    profile: {age: 20, sex: male}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 56.69, tolerance: 0.02}
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, male aged 40
    profile: {age: 40, sex: male}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 38.59, tolerance: 0.02}
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, male aged 65
    profile: {age: 65, sex: male}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 18.12, tolerance: 0.02}
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, male aged 80
    profile: {age: 80, sex: male}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 8.50, tolerance: 0.02}
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, male aged 100
    profile: {age: 100, sex: male}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 2.04, tolerance: 0.05}
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, female aged 0
    profile: {age: 0, sex: female}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 81.06, tolerance: 0.02}
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, female aged 20
    profile: {age: 20, sex: female}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 61.74, tolerance: 0.02}
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, female aged 40
    profile: {age: 40, sex: female}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 42.64, tolerance: 0.02}
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, female aged 65
    profile: {age: 65, sex: female}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 20.66, tolerance: 0.02}
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, female aged 80
    profile: {age: 80, sex: female}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 9.82, tolerance: 0.02}
  - name: SSA published life expectancy, female aged 100
    profile: {age: 100, sex: female}
    expect:
      remaining_life_expectancy: {value: 2.23, tolerance: 0.05}